UNIT ROOTS and COINTEGRATION
(MINI-COURSE, 10 hours + e)

Ph.D. in ECONOMICS-UPF
2007

Syllabus
Empirical Project: TBA
                         
Introduction      +       more
Nexus I (from McFadden 2000)
Nexus II (Introduction Mixing) + more
30m 
Graphical-Examples

Does Everything Grow? It Seems So:
USTrendsPopulation
USTrendsGovCrimeTransport
USTrendsMoneyPolitics
USTrendsEducationReligion
USTrendsBusinessCommunication
USTrendsLeisureHealth
USTrendsWork
[From "The First Measured Century" by T. Caplow, L. Hicks and B. Watenberg,  PBS 2001]
Reading 1 (Ergodicity)
(from Breiman (1969) "Probability and Stochastic Processes: With a View Toward Applications")

 
The Land of Unit Roots

Appendix 0 on BMotion
Appendix 1 on FCLT
Appendix 2 on FCLT

Graphs1
Graphs2

Nexus(Notes of Herman Bierens on Unit Roots)
3h
Applets on:
Brownian Motion I
Brownian Motion II
Brownian Motion III
Brownian Motion IV

DF-TEST Program
Break Program
Reading 2 (Handbook of Econometrics: Unit Roots and Breaks, Jim Stock)

Reading 3  ("Relative power of t type tests for stationary and unit root processes")  (J. Gonzalo and T.Lee, 1997)
VAR Models
Nexus I (notes of Chris Sims on  VARs) 
Nexus II (notes of Guido Kuersteiner on VARs) 
VAR Models with E-Views Reading 4 (VAR notes by Mark Watson)
Reading 5 (Structural VAR notes by Eric Zivot)

Brief Introduction to Structural Breaks
                                      30m
Reading 6 (Structural Breaks by Pierre Perron)
Spurious Regression and Cointegration


Appendix 1: on Canonical Correlations and  Reduced Rank Regressions
 
4h

Examples of Spurious Regression

Spurious Regression Program
Cointegration Program
Engle-Granger Program
  

Reading 7 (Spurious Regression with I(0))
(Granger, Hyung and Jeon, 1998)

Reading 8 (Handbook of Econometrics: VARs and Cointegration, Mark Watson)

Reading 9 ("Five Alternative Methods
 of Estimating Long-RunRelationships")

(J. Gonzalo,  1995)

Reading 10 ("Pitfalls on Testing Long-Run Relationships") (J. Gonzalo and T.Lee,  1998)
Cointegration and Common Factors

Class-notes
+
Application: Price Discovery and Cointegration


 3h
 (Andrew Buck- Temple University)

Reading 11 (A companion to Theoretical Econometrics: Cointegration, Dolado, Gonzalo and Marmol)

Reading 12 ("Common Long-memory Components") (J. Gonzalo and C.Granger,  1996)